2024 Bears Predication Update: Third Quarter Results

 The NFL season is about three quarters over, with all the teams completing their bye weeks and the
Chicago Bears are 4-8. 

I predicted them to be 8-4 at this point, and they would have been had it not been for literally blowing the game in the final minute twice and forgetting how to play in Over Time once.

Per the self-inflicted rules,  I'm sticking with my predictions.  For their last five games, I predict the following:

at 49ers         L

at Vikings W

Lions W

Seahawks W

at Packers L

While not mathematically eliminated, their playoff hopes are pretty much dashed. They would have to run the table AND get some help, so let's address that.

It is possible but unlikely they run the table.  They were in position to win the last three games but blew it through bad coaching.  

The 49ers are 5 -7 but they have lost three in a row.  And the game against the Bears is at home.  Which means San Francisco should have a slight advantage.

The Vikings are considered the best fraud of the season next to the Falcons.  If we almost beat the Lions in Detroit, we should be able to beat them at Soldier Field.  But the Lions might be fighting for a first round bye so it won't be easy.

The Packers will likely be fighting for a playoff berth but since they have won so many games in the past  I feel like it's the Bears turn.  If the Bears can win out and Green Bay loses a couple of games, the last wild card spot could go to Chicago, assuming teams in other divisions have worse records (division winners aside).

The thing is, it's hard to win 5 in a row when you are a good team.  The Bears are not there yet.  If my last five predictions are correct, they are 7 and 10 at the end of the season.  They might do a tad better, but they could tank so they get a higher draft pick.  I'm certain that is what they did the last two years at the expense of Justin Fields and the fan base.

On a personal note, watching Bears games is one of the few joys I have these days.  But it is in conflict with Nightingale.  The games are usually at noon on Sunday which means just when she is getting started on things, I'm sitting on the couch watching the game, that we pay a lot of money to watch down here.

I won't pay that money next year and watch: they will be good.  

Election Aftermath

Donald Trump managed to repeat history and become the second U.S. president ever to return to the Oval Office after losing reelection four years earlier. (The first was Grover Cleveland in 1893.) 

While he lost the (irrelevant) popular vote the first two times he ran for office, he won it this time, along with the necessary Electoral College votes.

To say we are disappointed is an understatement. We knew our votes didn't really matter in Mississippi-Stan. Our in-laws alone canceled our votes 2-1. But there was a glimmer of hope these last few weeks, and to use the coin of the phrase, we were nauseously optimistic. 

In the days and weeks to come, Pundits will explain why Kamala Harris lost to the Fanta Menace.  Among the list will be:

• Racism
• Misogyny
• Muslim and Arab Americans disappointment with Biden's policy re: Israel and Palestine
• The democratic party's inability to appeal to the progressive left
• Voter suppression
• gerrymandering
• 3rd party siphoning votes
• Not having a legitimate primary where people could truly choose the nominee

It's a combination of all of the above.

Furthermore, he has the House the Senate, and SCOTUS.  We are truly screwed.

2024 Bears Predication Update: Second Quarter Results

The NFL season is about halfway over, and the Chicago Bears are 4-4. I predicted them to be 5-3 at this point, and they would have been had it not been for a boneheaded lapse of focus in the last 30 seconds of the game against Washington.  

 My prediction had them going 3-1, making them 5 - 3 overall. This may have been too optimistic.  Anything less than 2-2 makes their playoff hopes a little tougher.

As always, I'm sticking with my predictions.  For their next four games, I predicted the following:

Patriots W

Packers W

Vikings W

at Lions L

Despite the Bears' last two losses, the NFC North is the only division in which every team has a winning record. It's a tough division. Let's look at their next four games. Through a fluke of scheduling, the first three are at home.

The New England Patriots are playing better than their record would indicate.  The Bears have won all of their home games this year and the last few last year.  On the other hand, until yesterday, the Bears' defense held opponents to under 21 points (an average of 16.5 pts).  Yesterday's loss brings the average up to 18 pts, which is phenomenal unless your Offense doesn't show up.

Next will be the Packers at home.  Other than yesterday's blowout against the Lions, the Pack has been in every game it lost but also hasn't really dominated any team in their wins.  They almost lost to the Jaguars.  They will be coming off a Bye and that usually helps.  Another tough one.

The following week the Bears host the Vikings.  Minnesota started the season strong but seems to be coming back down to earth.  However, they play Jacksonville and Tennessee before facing the Bears and two almost guaranteed victories will infuse a lot of confidence.  This will probably come down to who has the last possession.

Finally, the Bears go on the road to play the Lions in Detroit.  I have this down as a Bears loss.  The only hope is that it's a trap game for the overconfident Lions.  

My prediction had them going 3-1, making them 7 - 4 at this point.  Again, this might have been too optimistic.  Anything less than 2-2 likely kills their playoff but even if they are 6 - 6 at this point, they might need help backing into the playoffs.

I'm certain that the loss to Washington will come back to haunt them.  Missing the playoffs because of tiebreaker rules is so very Bears.  

Last Weekend of October

 I have been fighting a virus for the better part of two weeks. It is mostly a terrible cough, but there is some sinus congestion, even though I can easily breathe through my nose. Once the drugs kick in, I'm okay, but I don't have the energy to do anything.  

Boris got it before we went to Canada and Natasha got it afterwards.  They each missed a few days of school.  I caught it just as Natasha was getting better.  Nightingale has not caught it at all.

The Bears managed to lose a game in epic fashion.  They scored the go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute on the clock.  Somehow Washington managed to move close enough to throw a hail mary and a Bears defender Tyrique Stevenson tipped the ball into the hands of a Commander in the end zone and it was a touchdown.  And that's not even the first time the Bears have even done anything like that.

The in-laws are in Houston so we are dog-sitting again.  They had to put down one of their dogs earlier this year so now it is only one hospice dog, who is much more manageable.  She still shits and pisses everywhere but when she's done with that, she mostly sleeps.

The other in-law was over here on Saturday to watch the Michigan - Michigan State game.  She wanted to have a kid-free evening of watching the game and hanging with Nightingale but her husband refused to watch both kids so she could have a night off.  I get my info from Nightingale and I cannot speak for certain about their dynamic but Confederate Jethro apparently cannot handle two children at once.  Or he doesn't want to because misogyny.  

It's getting really tiresome dealing with him.  The first year down here, he gave me a lot of flack and Nightingale begged me to not respond.  And I did for a while.  But one day in September 2022, Confederate Jethro sent me this stupid meme about White Privilege and I responded that instead of sending me bullshit like this, he should be vetting babysitters. 

Confederate Jethro was so pissed!  He called his wife who called my wife who called me.  And I put my foot down and said IDGF he had it coming.  It was fortunate that I was working at the time because I had some leverage.   

He has essentially pouted ever since.  This makes the Christmas Holidays and Family dinners problematic because he doesn't' want to be in my presence (yes, I'm heartbroken).  But it does create some issues that could be avoided if the family would just stand up to him.  I guess him being over 300 lbs and heavy armed does make one pause.

Down to Five bucks a Day now

I thought it would be good to update the Cost per Day for the Drama Playset.  We have now owned the Drama Playset since January 14, 2022.  

Conservative Estimate:  I'm assuming that 4 kids using the playset most days equals one kid using it every day.  Also we have had an additional kid most of the year.

So using the time and date duration calculator to figure the time between January 14, 2022, when it finally arrived, and today this year, I get 1013 days.  

that works out to $6000/455 = $5.92 per use.

Slightly Optimistic Estimate:  If we get more optimistic, then we can assume 4 kids using the playset most days equals two kids using it every day.

that works out to $6000/455/2 = $2.96 per use.

And if we take the average of these two values, we get the more like CPU of $4.44.

So as we approach the 3 year anniveasry, it cost $5 to keep my kids entertained and off their iPads.

Toronto Vacation Part 4

I'm breaking this trip post into smaller posts so the photos don't fill an entire page, or something like that.

MONDAY

The Butterfly Conservatory was a blast.  and we had lunch at a great local place called Corks where I had the best Lobster sandwich in my life (also my first Lobster sandwich in my life).  but honestly, Niagara on the Lake is not kid-friendly.  YES, there are stores where they can find cool stuff.  but otherwise, not kid-friendly.

and the rest of the day was spent getting back home.  For some god fucking reason, we had to fly past Memphis to Dallas and then come back.  our 2nd flight was delayed, and the AC couldn't be turned on until we lifted off, and we didn't land until after 11 pm (30 minutes delayed). By the time we got home, it was Tuesday.

we slept in and Tuesday was an easy day.  but now we are catching up.

As a reminder to Future Me, next time check your bags on the return trip.  On the way to our destination, having our bags with us in case of Lost Luggage made sense.  On the return trip, there was no reason to force ourselves and our kids to carry their suitcases when everything they needed was in their backpacks.  

One final note, the 7-11 pizza we ate at the airport was better than one-third of the meals we consumed on this trip.  

Toronto Vacation Part 3

I'm breaking this trip post into smaller posts so the photos don't fill an entire page, or something like that.

SUNDAY

We got wet.  our tour guide seems questionable in her bone fides.  I guess we had to choose between Behind the Falls or Mist Boat Ride, but honestly, I would have skipped Floral Clock and Welland Ship Canal.

for lunch we stopped at a tourist trap.

I liked the Old Fort Niagara but was still stuffed from lunch.  so while we tried, we couldn't take full advantage of the Mandarin Buffet.

then we get to see Ripley's Believe it or Not museum and a wax museum NO ONE was interested in seeing.

the fireworks were nice.

I've obviously lost steam on these posts so I'm just publishing what I have with some photos.  Sorry to my handful of readers.